2015?

December 28, 2014 in General

By year’s end only ten US states will lack marriage equality legislation.

Canada will finally pass C-279, its transgender rights bill, into law.

Malcolm Turnbull will launch a successful party room coup in Canberra and depose Tony Abbott to become Australian Prime Minister some time this year.

Hillary Clinton may become the US Democrat Party’s presidential nominee for 2016, despite a strong challenge from rival Elizabeth Warren.

Robert Mugabe and US televangelist Pat Robertson may pass away this year. Mugabe will be succeeded by Grace, his wife, as Zimbabwean dictator- oops, I mean “president.”

Stephen Harper and his Conservatives will lose the next Canadian federal election in December 2015. Justin Trudeau and his Liberals will replace them.

After increasing pressure, the Key administration finally changes tack on transgender rights. Key administration Justice Minister Amy Adams proposes an expanded Human Rights Act and Nikki Kaye includes a Supplementary Order Paper that adds gender identity. Supported by all but one Labour MP, and all of the Greens, ACT, Maori Party and United Future’s caucuses, as well as the Prime Minister and half the National Party caucus, the bill finally becomes law.

In March 2015, opposed by the Justice and Environment select committee, the Manukau City Council (Regulation of Prostitution in Specified Places) Bill finally fails, defeated at its second reading.  Out of Parliament, Asenati Lole-Taylor is strangely silent for once, although Auckland Council is opposed to the decision, predictably, as is Family First.  Whether any other New Zealand First MP will now take up Lole-Taylor’s prohibitionist “Prostitution Reform (Control of Street Prostitution) Bill” is a moot point, however. If that is the case, it will mark the third time that prohibitionist anti-sexworker legislation is introduced into Parliament.

As the Russian economy continues to deteriorate, Vladimir Putin will face increasing opposition to his authoritarian rule.  At this stage, his state media apparatus and secret service are able to suppress dissent, but at some nexus, there may be  a tipping point.

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