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Wednesday 14 April 2010

Proclamations of the Red Queen

24th December 2009


Posted by: Craig Young

Late last year, I made several predictions about forthcoming events after New Years Day 2009. What’s on offer this year? Here are my prognostications!blog2010.jpg

Will Singapore be the next nation to decriminalise male homosexuality, given its current status of de facto decriminalisation?

Will Portugal become the next nation to embrace same-sex marriage proper? Or will it be Argentina?  Argentina’s first same sex marriage occurred in late December 2009, between Alex Freyre and Jose Maria Di Bello, in Ushaia, Tierra del Fuego.

Is this the next international LGBT trouble spot? In Malawi, Tiwonge Chimbalanga and Steve Monjeza were imprisoned after an engagement party, as Sections 153 and 156 of the Malawi Criminal Code ban ‘unnatural offences’ and threats to ‘public decency’, carrying fourteen year prison sentence. There is an LGBT group, the Centre for the Development of People.

The fundamentalist Kiwi Party will fail to gain the requisite number of signatures to launch an indicative referendum on whether there should be binding referenda. I can also foresee the crystallisation of an anti-CIR movement as a consequence of their antics.

After thirteen years in the political wilderness, the British Conservatives will return to power, although not in an absolute landslide.

By contrast, if an Australian federal election is fought over climate change, Kevin Rudd’s federal ALP and the Australian Greens will be the chief beneficiaries. Hopeless Australian Liberal leader Tony Abbott will crash and burn as his party is paralysed by infighting over its extremist climate change denialism.

Don’t be surprised if Margaret Thatcher or US televangelist Pat Robertson pass away this year.

ACT will experience growing caucus factionalism, given its stillborn poll ratings and the prospect that National will run an effective urban liberal candidate in Epsom to rid itself of an unwanted New Right appendage party.

On the other hand, Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni will probably try to placate the Ugandan Christian Right through increased sentencing severity and sanctions against gay men in Uganda’s existing colonial era antigay criminal legislation.

Wild Cards:

*Kevin Hague’s adoption reform bill comes  up for a vote and John Key has a sudden attack of bipartisan social liberalism over the issue. To send a shot across the bows of the Christian Right and remind them who’s in charge, he abstains but states that if some of his liberal caucus colleagues want to insure the success of the bill, they should go right ahead. On the phone to David Cameron later, he thanks him for the idea.

*Chris Finlayson and Simon Power announce plans to expand the Human Rights Act. Finally, gender identity, genetic status and other new antidiscrimination grounds are enacted into law.

*Either NZAF or other HIV/AIDS researchers obtain specific funding to examine the nexus between P/crystal meth use and unsafe gay male sex.

Tags: Politics

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